Trainer Nick Zito got some good news and some bad news following last Saturday's final round of major prep races for the May 7 Kentucky Derby, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
The good news: Zito's colt Dialed In will be the Derby favorite, somewhere in the 4-1/9-2 range, looking to give the Hall-of-Fame horseman his third victory in the Run for the Roses, and his first since Go for Gin in 1994.
The bad news: Dialed In will be favored for the Derby in a year when the Triple Crown trail is littered with favorites who flopped in major preps: Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial, Soldat in the Florida Derby, Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby and Tapizar in the Robert B. Lewis, to name a few.
The Factor, 4-5 in the Arkansas Derby, and Santiva, 2-1 in the Blue Grass, were the latest victims. The Factor, trying a mile-and-an-eighth for the first time off front-running wins in the San Vicente and Rebel, never made the lead this time, chasing the quick pace set by JP's Gusto. He made a move on the far turn under Martin Garcia but flattened out in the stretch to finish seventh.
Trainer Bob Baffert speculated that The Factor flipped his palate early in the race and could not get his air. Whether he'll still run in the Derby is undecided; but if he goes, it's hard to see him winning off this non-effort.
Two late-blooming colts did emerge from the Arkansas Derby looking like late-running threats on the first Saturday in May. Archarcharch, third in the Rebel after his chances were compromised when the horse next to him flipped in the starting gate, closed resolutely to take command in the final furlong, then held off the furious late charge of Nehro, who fell short by a neck for the second time in a row after just missing in the Louisiana Derby. The final time was a solid 1:49.34.
Santiva, who in his only other start this year was second in the Feb. 19 Risen Star, was also making his first start at a mile-and-an-eighth. He also had a rough trip ("bothered at the start" . . . "pinned up in midstretch," reads the Equibase chart footnote) and trailed home ninth. His Derby status is also undetermined.
As is often the case since Keeneland switched its main surface to Polytrack five years ago, horses with proven form on synthetics and/or turf dominated the Blue Grass. Brilliant Speed, 19-1 off a pair of photo-finish losses on the Gulfstream lawn, won by the bob of a nose over 24-1 Twinspired, third last out in the Spiral on Polytrack at Turfway Park, with the good grass horse King Congie, 13-1, a head back in third. Following a much slower pace than in the Arkansas Derby, they went the distance in 1:50.92.
ed.fountaine@nypost.com
trainer nick zito, trainer bob baffert, blue grass stakes, oaklawn park, final furlong, nehro, louisiana derby, arkansas derby, prep races, rough trip, run for the roses, first saturday, hall of fame, horseman, kentucky derby, san vicente, triple crown, last saturday, palate, soldat
No comments:
Post a Comment